Google gives insights to RP online search trends

Ever wondered what Filipinos are looking for online every week?

According to Google Insights for Search, the top two rising search terms among Internet users in the Philippines for the past seven days were the sinking of the SuperFerry 9 in Zamboanga on September 6 and Malacañang's declaration of a nonworking holiday on September 7.

Weather also seemed to be a top-of-mind topic for Filipinos lately as it was the third most searched term for the week while weather bureau PAGASA was the fifth most searched term recently. The Fil-Am dance sensation Jabbawockeez also garnered a lot of online attention recently as it placed fourth on the list while the US Open placed sixth.

Even the popular Facebook application Restaurant City continues to get lots of Google searches lately, particularly for ways on how to cheat the game. Other rising searches in the top 10 list are GMA News, ABS-CBN News and Noynoy Aquino.

Jay Trinidad, regional product marketing manager for Google Asia-Pacific, said Google Insights for Search allows users to compare search volume patterns across specific provinces and time frames. He said the tool allows marketers to adjust their ad campaigns and business strategies as market interest shifts.

"This is a free online tool that uses the intelligence of crowds. It aggregates searches and normalizes the data to show rising search trends," Trinidad told reporters in a Makati forum.

He said marketers who use Google Insights for Search can actually gauge the overall sentiment of the Internet-using public at any given time. For example, he said the onset of the global financial crisis actually led to an increase in searches for "discounts" and "coupons." He also noted that Goldman Sachs actually priced their Coach bag products lower after noting a decrease in online searches for the brand.

In the Philippines, online searches for beaches start in early March and peak in April according to Google's yearly search query patterns. With that information, resort owners, hotels and even airlines can anticipate demand and make the necessary adjustments to advertising budgets, staffing and even inventory.

One thing that Google Insights does not show is the actual number of searches done for a particular topic or term. Trinidad said Google "normalizes" the data and filters out the searches that have experienced significant growth in a given time period.

This could be quite tricky for local ad campaigns as Google does not state how many searches are needed for a particular term before it starts making a dent on Google stats. Even more important, some areas barely register a blip on Google graphs because "there is not enough search volume to show graphs."

To illustrate, I tried to compare search trends for the word "yogurt" in Manila, Davao and Batangas to see if online searches actually coincided with the launch of several frozen yogurt stores in Metro Manila recently. Google Insights failed to show graphs for the last 7, 30 and 90 days because there was insufficient volume of searches done for that particular search term in all three subregions.

For the past 12 months, however, Google Insights showed that online searches for "yogurt" had been increasing in Manila, particularly in Makati, since March of this year while it made nary a blip in Davao and Batangas. This means that there is some interest for yogurt in Manila and Makati but not in Davao and Batangas, at least according to Google.

Offline events affect online behavior

Trinidad said search trends are often affected by offline events such as Manny Pacquiao's boxing matches or the death of former president Corazon Aquino. He noted that in the US, online searches for candidates John McCain and Barack Obama increased dramatically in the last few months before the 2008 election.

He said online interest for a particular political candidate can be gauged through the number of searches tracked by Google Insights.

"I would say that it offers them something valuable. It allow them to know what some people are interested in. What we hope to show is the relative number of searches over a number of time and compared to the other search terms. In much the same way that you go to Nielsen to get the numbers, it's one of the places you visit before you mount a campaign," he said.

A comparison on search trends for Noynoy Aquino, Manny Villar, Joseph Estrada, Mar Roxas and Noli de Castro for the past 90 days showed Villar clearly leading online searches compared to the other four candidates until August. Online interest for Noynoy Aquino, however, has been rising since his mother's death on August 1 and peaked recently after his announcement that he would run for president next year.

Online searches for Mar Roxas skyrocketed on September 1 after he announced that he would withdraw his presidential bid and support Aquino.

Motorola unveils Android-powered smartphone, the Cliq

Motorola on Thursday unveiled a new smartphone, the Cliq, powered by Google's Android software which the US handset maker hopes will help turn around its flagging fortunes.

Motorola co-chief executive Sanjay Jha previewed the touch-screen phone, which is to be available through US carrier T-Mobile, at the GigaOm Mobilize09 event in San Francisco.

"Android gives us a platform to innovate and enhance user experiences," he said.

Described as "the first phone with social skills," the Cliq is heavily geared toward social networking with easy access and features built around sites such as Facebook, MySpace and Twitter.

For example, Jha said, caller ID on the phone will display the name of the incoming caller, their latest profile picture and latest status update.

The Cliq also features a camera and video camera and a full complement of Google mobile services such as Google calendar, Google maps and built-in GPS.

Jha said the Cliq was one of two smartphones Motorola expected to release by the end of the year running Google's open-source Android operating system.

The other device would be unveiled "in the coming weeks," he said, and both would hit store shelves in time for the holiday season.

"We expect (the Cliq) to be one of our hottest-selling devices in the fourth quarter," said T-Mobile chief technology officer Cole Brodman, who appeared on stage with Jha.

Google and T-Mobile released the first so-called "Google Phone," the T-Mobile G1, which is manufactured by Taiwan's HTC Corp., in October of last year.

US wireless carrier Sprint Nextel and HTC announced plans last week to release a touch-screen mobile phone in October, the HTC Hero, powered by Android.

Motorola enjoyed success with its popular Razr phone launched in 2005 but has been losing ground since to Apple's popular iPhone and Research in Motion's Blackberry as well as other major cell phone makers such as Nokia, Samsung and Sony Ericsson.

Google's investors look for next big thing

Google Inc made its fortune on Internet search ads, but Wall Street is increasingly eager for signs that the company's other money-making bets will pay off.

"Even though paid search is 95 percent of the business, I think everybody's looking for that next trick," said John Lutz, a senior research analyst at Frost Investment Advisors, which owns Google shares.

Google will brief investors in a Webcast on Wednesday about search and monetization, though Google spokeswoman Jane Penner said the event will focus more on the monetization of search than on businesses like YouTube.

The Internet giant has myriad initiatives, including a display ad business, mobile Internet products and YouTube, the world's top video Web site.

But none have demonstrated the kind of financial horsepower typically associated with Google, which generated nearly $22 billion in revenue last year.

The Mountain View, California company has been tight-lipped when it comes to the financials of non-search businesses, though there are signs it is opening up a little.

In July, Google lifted the covers slightly on YouTube, revealing that YouTube is monetizing billions of video views every month and that it expects YouTube to become a profitable business in the not-too-distant future. Executives wanted to dispel reports that YouTube, which it acquired for $1.65 billion in 2006, does not have a credible business model.

New formats

Brigantine Advisors analyst Colin Gillis said new ad formats that incorporate videos and graphics could prove key to Google's future growth, as the company courts advertisers like Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble.

"Google's got to give them a good format to convey emotion. This is going to be the next major area," said Gillis.

Google sought to bolster its display ad business with the 2008 acquisition of ad network DoubleClick for $3.1 billion. But rivals Yahoo Inc, Microsoft and Time Warner Inc's AOL still dominate that market.

Analysts also point to Google's mobile efforts, such as specialized search applications for smartphones, as a natural extension of its business. The price of each ad should be higher, because Google can display fewer paid search links on a phone's screen, Sanford Bernstein analyst Jeff Lindsay said.

Moreover, mobile content has the potential to incorporate a user's geographic location, making the ad more specific and relevant, which could also drive up pricing.

"The hypothesis was that mobile search would deliver much higher revenue per search," said Lindsay, but it is unclear whether that is the case.

Analysts estimate that mobile search ads now yield less than 5 percent of Google's revenue. The question is when mobile could become a more significant source of revenue.

"It's not really this year. It's the next three to four years," said Lindsay.

Near-term, search is still what moves the needle.

"The most important thing that everybody wants to figure out is what does a recovery scenario look like for search," said RBC Capital Markets' Ross Sandler. "Once you get beyond that, and that starts to get priced-in and well-understood, that's when Act 2 or Act 3 becomes important."

Sony PCs to offer Google Web browser

Google Inc is shipping its Chrome browser with Sony Corp PCs, sealing the Internet company's first such deal since it introduced the Web browser last year to compete with Microsoft.

The deal could expand the reach of Google's fledgling product which lags behind browsers offered by Microsoft Corp and the Mozilla foundation in market share.

Google spokesperson Eitan Bencuya said the deal with Sony went into effect this summer, but declined to discuss terms of the deal, such as which Sony PC models come pre-installed with the Chrome browser, or any financial terms.

Google said the company was now exploring ways to make Chrome accessible to more people.

"We are in the process of testing one such channel with Sony," according to a statement.

The deal with Sony was first reported by the Financial Times. Sony trails PC giants like Hewlett-Packard Company and Dell Inc, and did not rank among the top five PC vendors by worldwide shipments in the second quarter, according to research firm IDC.

But Bencuya said Google was looking at striking similar deals with other PC makers.

Google introduced the Chrome browser in September 2008 and remains a distant number four player in the browser market, with a 2.59 percent worldwide share in July according to market research firm Net Applications.

Microsoft's Internet Explorer dominates the browser market with 67.7 percent market share, followed by the Mozilla Foundation's Firefox, with 22.5 percent, and Apple Inc's Safari, with 4 percent.

US online giant eBay to sell Skype: report

US online auction giant eBay will announce Tuesday a plan to sell its Web communication service Skype to an investment group, The New York Times reported.

The group of private investors would likely include Andreessen Horowitz, a venture capital firm headed by Netscape co-founder Marc Andreessen, the newspaper said, citing two people briefed on eBay's plans.

London-based venture capital firm Index Ventures, an early investor in Skype, and private equity firm Silver Lake Partners were also involved in the arrangement, whose value was not disclosed.

But the Times noted that eBay has said it wants about two billion dollars for Skype, which could take in over $600 million in revenue this year.

eBay purchased Skype in 2005 for a price tag that eventually exceeded $3.1 billion, including payouts to Web entrepreneurs Niklas Zennstrom of Sweden and Janus Friis of Denmark, who founded the company in 2003.

But eBay found it difficult to integrate the company with its core auction business and later wrote down $900 million of Skype's value.

The auction company said in April it had planned an initial public offering for the Skype division next year, but the Times noted eBay has since been in talks with companies and investment groups interested in making the purchase.

Last month, eBay negotiated with Internet giant Google over Skype, which bypasses the standard telephone network by channeling voice and video calls over the Web, the newspaper said. But Google walked away from the deal.

Since the sale to eBay, the number of Skype users has exploded from 53 million to 405 million. Skype allows users to call each other free of charge and to connect with land lines or mobile devices at low rates.

A Google model for mobile advertising?

The week is not over yet but it seems I've already exceeded my quota of interviews with IT executives. Most of them are mobile officials who came over to the country to attend the recently concluded IMMAP (Internet and Mobile Marketing Association of the Philippines) conference.

I picked up a number brilliant ideas from these guys who all argued that the next battleground in digital marketing is in the mobile sector. While Google has undoubtedly made the most money out of the Internet, its competitors, including archrival Yahoo, are locked in a race to conquer the mobile space.

One of the most interesting comments I got from my interviews is from a Dutch guy named Boudewijn Pesch, who is the managing director for Asia-Pacific of Acision. I almost did not attend my session with Pesch because my interview schedule was mixed up with that of another reporter and the venue was the company's office in the opposite end of the metropolis. The late-afternoon gig became messier when strong rains made traveling doubly hard.

But, I'm glad I dragged myself to the Pesch interview since the guy was not the typical executive I usually encounter. He was quite stingy with his answers and responded with a single sentence for each of the questions I threw at him. Thus, I had to constantly ask questions to keep him talking.

At the start of the interview, Pesch proudly pointed out that Acision, a Netherlands-based tech company, is the inventor of SMS or text messaging. Since I had no idea who really invented this technology service, I didn't dispute his assertion and accepted it at face value.

Pesch also admitted that his company developed the Duo service offered by Globe Telecom. The innovative offering allows mobile phone users to make unlimited calls to landlines and other Duo-ready phones at a fixed subscription fee. Pesch stressed, however, Globe had first broached the idea and Acision only provided the technology.

One interesting comment he made was on the issue of mobile advertising. Acision, he said, has actually developed a technology that allows advertisers to insert their ads in the text messages sent by subscribers.

Pesch this is similar to the Google model in which ads that are related to the queries of users are placed alongside the search results. As we all know, Google has extended this model to its Gmail service wherein ads related to the e-mail sent by its subscribers also appear inside their inbox.

The exec said they already presented this service to local operators, which, I'm sure, will thoroughly study it first before deploying it commercially. Pesch didn't mention any pricing scheme, but the only reason I can think of that consumers would agree to have ads in their text messages is for operators to give free subscription service in return.

It would be interesting how this thing will pan out.

Rigodon Update

Internet firm Yahoo has just appointed a new guy to lead its Philippine operations. Jonathan "Jack" Madrid, former head of technology incubator iAyala and managing director of MTV Philippines, will replace tech pioneer Jojo Anonuevo, who will take up a regional post at Yahoo in Singapore.

Madrid also had a short but uninspiring stint as a manager at Dell Computer's call center before the facility was sold recently to Teleperformance. But, I guess the company had to put in a marketing man in charge after Anonuevo, a technology guy, was done setting up the local office.

Also, veteran IT exec Nilo Cruz has reportedly taken up a new post as head of the joint venture of Smartmatic and TIM, the consortium that won the 7 billion pesos (US$144.2 million) 2010 automated elections contract. Cruz's experience and network as former country manager of Compaq, Hewlett-Packard and BT will surely come in handy in his new job.

Yahoo-Microsoft deal finally worked out (confirmed)

The story has had quite a volume of press since a few months ago when Microsoft's offer to buy out Yahoo! for $47.5 billion was turned down by then Yahoo CEO Yang.

A couple of weeks later, rumors about a different Yahoo-Microsoft deal came out. This time, it was only for the Yahoo's search business, and Microsoft's advertising arm. In this new deal, it was supposed that Microsoft will handle Yahoo's search engine, while Yahoo handles Microsoft's online advertising.

Just yesterday, however, a deal not very different from what was rumored was confirmed to have been struck between the two tech giants. The obvious drive behind this would be to take on search and targeted advertising giant Google. But the question of whether it's going to work remains.

The long-expected deal means Microsoft's new Bing search engine will be combined with Yahoo's experience attracting advertisers in the first serious threat to Google Inc -- if the companies get regulatory approval and can make the partnership work.

Yahoo shares fell 12 percent as some investors were disappointed by the limited scope of the deal, which did not include up-front payments for Yahoo. Some investors had expected up to $3 billion up-front, according to a Bernstein report.

"I would have preferred more money," said Ryan Jacob, chief investment officer of Jacob Asset Management, pointing to the lack of an upfront payment, as well as revenue-sharing and cost-savings terms that were not as high as he expected.

"There are risks on both sides. Big deals like this tend not to work out. It's a long-term deal that's going to take a long time to implement," said Jacob, whose $40 million fund holds some Yahoo shares. "It's better than no deal."

Microsoft shares closed up 1.4 percent, while Google shares fell 0.8 percent.

Yahoo estimated the deal would boost its annual operating income by about $500 million and yield capital expenditure savings of $200 million. Yahoo also expects the deal to boost annual operating cash flow by about $275 million.

Antitrust obstacle

Under the deal announced on Wednesday, Microsoft's Bing search engine will power search queries on Yahoo's sites. Yahoo's sales force will be responsible for selling premium search ads to big buyers for both companies.

The partnership poses only a theoretical challenge to Google at present. It could take two-and-a-half years to get approval and be fully implemented, according to Yahoo Chief Executive Carol Bartz, which would mean the partnership would not be fully effective until early 2012.

Microsoft and Yahoo still face antitrust and privacy issues. Google dropped a planned search partnership with Yahoo last year under pressure from the U.S. Justice Department.

But experts said the deal would likely get the go-ahead after examination by Obama administration antitrust officials since it would create a stronger rival to market leader Google.

Google said only that it was "interested" in the deal, while the chairman of the US Senate antitrust panel said it warrants "careful scrutiny."

Microsoft and Yahoo expected the deal to be "closely reviewed" by regulators, but they were "hopeful" it could close in early 2010.

The deal concludes a lengthy, and at times contentious, dance between the two companies. They have been in on-again, off-again talks since Yahoo rebuffed Microsoft's $47.5 billion takeover bid last year.

Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer clashed last year with former Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang, who was strongly opposed to an all-out acquisition. Relations between the two companies improved under new Yahoo CEO Bartz, who took the reins in January and started to shake up Yahoo's management.

Ballmer and Bartz met "three or four times" over the past six months as they hammered out a deal, according to Ballmer.

How the deal works

While Bartz had previously said any deal would require a partner with "boatloads of money," she said on Wednesday the agreement provided "boatloads of value," adding the revenue- share agreement in the Microsoft deal was more valuable to Yahoo than a one-time payment.

"Having a big up-front cash payment doesn't really help us from an operating standpoint," Bartz said.

Microsoft's AdCenter technology will serve the standard sponsored links that appear alongside search results. Microsoft will pay Yahoo an initial rate of 88 percent of search revenue generated on Yahoo sites in the first five years.

That means Yahoo can concentrate on selling ads on its websites, while still generating revenue from search ads without the expense of maintaining its own search engine.

Bartz said the deal will result in "redundancies" in Yahoo's staff, although she declined to be specific. She stressed any changes would not occur until after full implementation of the partnership.

According to comScore, Google has a 65 percent share of the US search market, compared with Yahoo's 19.6 percent and Microsoft's 8.4 percent.

"Microsoft will be able to report a greater share in terms of search ... And Yahoo doesn't have to spend any more money on search," said Barry Diller, CEO of IAC/InterActiveCorp, which owns rival search engine Ask.com.

Yahoo shares closed down $2.08 at $15.14 on Nasdaq, while Microsoft closed up 33 cents at $23.80 and Google shares closed down $3.61 at $436.24.